Episode 39
Stop trusting your gut with Dr. Gleb Tsipursky
June 11, 2020
Following your gut reaction worked well for our ancestors living on the savannah; unfortunately, it’s not well-adapted to modern life in a complex, global business environment. Dr. Gleb Tsipursky helps us understand how to overcome our cognitive biases, make better decisions, and brace ourselves for the changes the coronavirus pandemic will continue to bring our way.
You can connect with Gleb on LinkedIn or through his website.
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How to make better decisions: Key takeaways from Episode 39
When you go with your gut, you’re making decisions based on experiences that helped your distant ancestors survive on the wild savannah. Unfortunately for our brains, savannah survival skills are not well suited to the modern, complex, global business environment. We have to work to actively overcome our cognitive biases in order to make strong decisions.
We can form habits to help us overcome the intuitive impulses that aren’t serving us well in many situations. Controlling our impulse to overeat sugary treats is a great example. Using willpower to resist a box of donuts is very difficult. Buying apples instead of donuts can be a more productive habit. Eating the entire box of donuts is a physical example of making snap business decisions based on a gut reaction.
Ignoring information that makes you uncomfortable falls under confirmation bias, in which we seek information that confirms our beliefs. Avoiding disastrous decisions will often require you to push outside of your comfort zone.
The fight-or-flight reactions that served people so well on the savannah can be very damaging in the business world. When you receive critical feedback, pause for 24 hours before responding. Wait until you can see the feedback objectively and determine how you can use it to help you grow.
When faced with a crisis, think long term. Although the circumstances around the pandemic are constantly changing, it’s become increasingly clear that we won’t go back to the way we were. Businesses need to adapt for the long haul, even though that likely means making some very painful decisions in the short term.
As you go through the process of assessing risk, using a SWOT analysis or other tool, pay attention to the pessimists. Top-level leaders tend to be optimistic people, and we create an echo chamber that doesn’t allow for dissenting views. It’s good to be optimistic, but you also need a plan for the worst-case scenario.
Five questions can help you prevent decision disasters on the small-scale, every day decision points. They are:
1) What important information didn’t I fully consider?
2) Which mental blind spots did I fail to account for?
3) What would a trusted, objective advisor suggest I do?
4) Have I addressed all the ways this decision could fail?
5) What new evidence would cause me to change my mind in the future?
There are some situations where trusting your gut will serve you well. You can certainly rely on your fight-or-flight reflex in a life-or-death situation. Your gut will also give you strong, reliable cues in relationships with people you know well—if something just doesn’t feel right, figure out why.
In the current pandemic, Gleb recommends that every business creates three plans for the future: an optimistic scenario, a moderate scenario, and pessimistic scenario. He forecasts anywhere from one to seven or more years before we attain mass vaccination against COVID-19. Planning for that long-term possibility puts your business into a strong position to act as things shift. If you reserve resources for the pessimistic scenario and end up not needing them, so much the better.
Your gut feelings come from what feels comfortable. We often make the worst decisions when we go with what’s comfortable, versus what’s right. Step back from your feelings and attempt to see beyond your cognitive biases to discern the truth. It’s not easy, but awareness is half the battle.
Additional Resources from Gleb Tsipursky
Never Go With Your Gut: How Pioneering Leaders Make the Best Decisions and Avoid Business Disasters by Gleb Tsipursky - This book explains how to avoid business disasters and poor decision making by being aware of cognitive biases. (Access a FREE SAMPLE here)
The Truth Seeker’s Handbook: A Science-Based Guide by Gleb Tsipursky - This book presents a variety of research-based tools for ensuring that our beliefs are aligned with reality and overcoming mental flaws.
The Blindspots Between Us: How to Overcome Unconscious Cognitive Bias and Build Better Relationships by Gleb Tsipursky - This guide offers a clear path to forging stronger, healthier, and more meaningful relationships.
Resilience: Adapt and Plan for the New Abnormal of the COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic by Gleb Tsipursky - Using cognitive neuroscience research and behavioral economics on dangerous judgement errors (cognitive biases), this book explains why people respond so poorly to slow-moving, high-impact, and long-term crises.
Access Gleb’s FREE Wise Decision-Maker Course, which includes an assessment on Dangerous Judgment Errors in the Workplace.
